Russia did believe that when they roll their tanks into Ukraine, they will surrender or flex some muscles but in a week or two, it will all be over. I guess they thought it would work out just like when the Taliban took over Afghanistan in 2021 or when Russia seized Crimea in 2014.
Don’t dare a man ready to die fighting. Zelensky, Ukraine’s President said they will not surrender until the last man is dead. They defended their territory.
The USA called the President, “let’s fly you out of Ukraine to a safe place”. He replied: ” I don’t need a ride, give me weapons”. The US and NATO felt, “well, let’s help these guys with weapons to defend themselves. We know they won’t last but at least, they would know that we tried”. Weapons were supplied, Ukraine soldiers used them well, and they lasted the night. The world was again surprised. And said, okay, let’s send them more weapons then.
Zelensky wanted to drag NATO into the war by calling for a “no-flight zone”. If NATO declares a no-flight zone over Ukraine as they have freely done in some warring territories, it means they will shoot down any Russian aircraft in Ukraine’s air space. If they do that, Putin has an excuse to attack the US or any NATO country. That will result in an escalation because NATO will have to fight back. That is simply World War III because North Korea and other Russian friends can join in. NATO said it’s not the wise thing to do.
Meanwhile, more defensive weapons began to pour in. Note the word “defensive”. Ukraine has not shot down a fly in Russia since the start of the war. If they do, Russia has an excuse to wipe out Ukraine from the map with more sophisticated weapons. So far, they’ve only been defending.
More support rained into Ukraine on the following day. Foods, basic needs, transportation for fleeing citizens into other European countries especially Poland, the next-door neighbour. Russia was going to cut Ukraine’s internet. They ran to Elon Musk the richest man who has a satellite in the space for help, he gave them under 24-48 hours. Supports and cheering everywhere. People volunteered to go fight for them from various countries as well.
NATO decided to join the battle but indirectly. Aside from supplying weapons, they supplied intelligence and training. Intelligence is key to winning any war! It is reported that it is NATO that reveals to Ukraine where the Russian army is, they tell them where to shoot and when to shoot. That way, they have reported the killing of up to eight major army generals of Russia. That’s unprecedented.
Europe and the USA also started slamming economic bans, travel bans and especially targeted bans on Russian billionaires hoping those billionaires will influence Putin’s decision. Even private companies banned Russia. It was enormous.
The toughest of all the bans is the OIL BAN. I told you that Europe is dependent on Russian oil. The US is also a major customer. Banning the oil would mean starving yourself while trying to make your enemy suffer. Putin had thought that they can’t do it since the war will be over in a few days anyway. But the longer it takes, the more the pressure on those countries to act selflessly. Biden took the bold step. Some other European and NATO countries followed suit. Yet, in most quarters, it is still a partial ban and not a total ban. And they still buy the oil through third parties. Like they won’t buy from Russia but can buy from a third party who bought from Russia. However, the ban led to increasing in demand, shortage in supply thereby, increase in price. This affects every country and every man in the world.
Negotiation is always the twin in every war. It is believed that war could only end on the table. Ukraine and Russia began to discuss. Russia listed her demands- “give us Crimea officially, the land we seized from you the other time. Also, allow those guys who have been trying to break away to go in peace. And also, forget about your dream of joining NATO. And lastly, we don’t want you to have military again”. Russia quickly erased that last one and replaced it with, “your military should be neutral, it should have nothing to do with NATO or other country’s military”.
At the beginning of the negotiation, Ukraine was ready to succumb. They told Russia, we will forgo NATO ambition. We will look into those guys that want to break away provided we can address the needs of those living there that wish to stay with Ukraine. The piece of land you stole, you know we can’t give you. We may just pretend that it’s yours but we won’t make it official.
As the negotiation was on, the war was on and Ukraine was making gains. At least, they were beating back Russian troops and have a large support base. I believe they started backtracking on succumbing at that point.
I should tell you about the approach of Russia in this war. Russia didn’t want to wipe out Ukraine. That will be too much and unforgivable. They only want to oppress them and wear them out by destroying their country, the buildings and kill people to order to pressurize the government to surrender and say, “it’s enough, we can’t take it anymore”. If Russia has it’s way, they also want to seize the capital, remove or assassinate the president and install another person. But Ukraine’s president seems to have a coconut head. His statement has been, ” you have to kill the last man. You have started already, you must kill us all”.
In all sincerity, the world powers and NATO especially could help Ukraine negotiate its way out quickly. They just need to give Russia some concession here and there. But they are not ready to do that for some reasons:
“At this point, if we give Putin what he wants, he would think he is smart. He could do the same for another country tomorrow.”
“If Ukraine is ready to fight, why should we stop them? Let’s see how much Russia can go”. We may even use the window to study Russia to know their weak points against future wars”.
When a teacher is beating a student, the teacher also gets tired. NATO believes that Russia is getting tired too of the loss at the war and the sanctions. “Let’s allow them to suffer for long so they won’t even try such again ever in their life”.
Lastly, they are like, ” what tells you that Ukraine will not even win this war. We thought they would surrender in 7days but it’s over 70 days already and they are still standing. They should hold on a little more.
What’s your TAKE AND best advice for UKRAINE?